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Prediction for CME (2015-07-19T09:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2015-07-19T09:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/8951/-1
CME Note: The arrival time for the CME is a little uncertain since it was possible embedded with a CIR preceding a CH HSS
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2015-07-22T15:30Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2015-07-22T15:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

:Issued: 2015 Jul 20 1230 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 50720
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 20 Jul 2015, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 20 Jul 2015 until 22 Jul 2015)
SOLAR FLARES  : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 20 Jul 2015  10CM FLUX: 100 / AP: 011
PREDICTIONS FOR 21 Jul 2015  10CM FLUX: 099 / AP: 013
PREDICTIONS FOR 22 Jul 2015  10CM FLUX: 098 / AP: 011
COMMENT: The long-duration C2.1 flare related to the complex filament
eruption in the southwest quadrant peaked on 19 July at 10:40UT and ended
at 13:02UT. The bulk of the related coronal mass ejection (CME), first seen
in LASCO/C2 imagery by CACTus on 09:48UT, is directed away from Earth.
However, a glancing blow from this CME cannot be ruled out and may impact
Earth on 22 or early 23 July. At most active geomagnetic conditions are
expected. The two currently visible sunspot regions were quiet. No C-class
flares or other earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Quiet flaring conditions are expected, with a small chance on a C-class
flare.

Solar wind speed further declined from 300 km/s to 270 km/s around 03:00UT,
then increased to its current values between 290-300 km/s. Bz was initially
very low, but has been persistently negative from about 03:00UT till
11:00UT, with maximum values near -6 nT. Bz then quickly returned to very
low values. The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) was mostly directed
away from the Sun. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions have been
observed.

Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected, but with a
chance on an active geomagnetic episode in response to the anticipated
arrival of the high speed stream of the positive transequatorial coronal
hole.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 044, BASED ON 16 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 19 Jul 2015
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 099
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 005
AK WINGST              : 002
ESTIMATED AP           : 002
ESTIMATED ISN          : 047, BASED ON 26 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
NONE
END

BT

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Lead Time: 51.00 hour(s)
Difference: 0.50 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2015-07-20T12:30Z

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